tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 1h 47m Denver DEN 10:07 → EWR 15:42UA 2381 7h 42m 98% 71%
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 50m San Francisco SFO 08:15 → EWR 16:53UA 435 7h 53m 89% 68%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 25m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 10h 10m 99% 64%
DeltaDetails → ONT 06:27 → SLC 09:19DL 2708 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 7h 22m 95% 62%
AlaskaDetails → ONT 19:04 → SEA 21:32AS 592 1h 07m Seattle SEA 22:39 → EWR 06:38 +1AS 395 8h 34m 85% 59%
AmericanDetails → ONT 19:31 → PHX 20:57AA 1666 1h 17m Phoenix PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156 7h 29m 80% 58%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 05m Phoenix PHX 08:35 → EWR 16:40AA 3041 7h 29m 86% 56%
AmericanDetails → ONT 11:18 → DFW 16:23AA 1820 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:22 → EWR 23:09AA 2145 8h 51m 93% 54%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ONT 07:02 → ORD 13:08UA 2226 50m Chicago ORD 13:58 → EWR 17:04UA 2466 7h 02m 67% 30%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON