Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1461 ONT 08:00 → HNL 11:12 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 2608 ONT 14:17 → HNL 17:16 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1461 Southwest	ONT 08:00	HNL 11:12	14%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 270 Alaska Flight history →	ONT 06:57	HNL 10:56	17%	3%	0.6%	86%
AS 2608 Alaska	ONT 14:17	HNL 17:16	20%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363	1h 55m San Francisco	SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175	8h 43m	99%	82%
United Details →	ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375	1h 30m San Francisco	SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509	8h 35m	90%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON