tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2267 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2267 United ONT 06:00 IAH 11:30 9% 2% 0.9% no record
F9 3132 Frontier Flight history → ONT 18:37 IAH 23:57 26% 9% 1.1% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ONT 06:00 → SFO 07:25UA 2363 1h 30m San Francisco SFO 08:55 → IAH 15:07UA 2498 7h 07m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:50 → SFO 15:15UA 1375 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 18:40 → IAH 00:45 +1UA 2464 8h 55m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601 10h 09m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446 3h 42m Denver DEN 12:02 → IAH 15:26UA 1599 8h 26m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → ONT 07:02 → ORD 13:08UA 2226 2h 57m Chicago ORD 16:05 → IAH 19:10UA 714 10h 08m 97% 66%
UnitedDetails → ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263 2h 57m Denver DEN 19:35 → IAH 23:06UA 475 7h 48m 95% 65%
AmericanDetails → ONT 14:13 → DFW 19:24AA 2635 3h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:52 → IAH 00:12 +1AA 3023 7h 59m 99% 64%
AmericanDetails → ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194 1h 16m Phoenix PHX 08:46 → IAH 13:32AA 2357 5h 21m 86% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → ONT 14:08 → SEA 16:42AS 575 52m Seattle SEA 17:34 → IAH 23:43AS 240 7h 35m 65% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON