Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: American via DFW, leaving 11:18, is the safest bet: 47% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 454 JetBlue Flight history →	ONT 22:39	JFK 06:52	24%	7%	2.4%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Ontario). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ONT 18:01 → SEA 20:50DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest	1h 50m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	9h 49m	97%	77%
Alaska Details →	ONT 17:29 → PDX 20:00AS 2456 · flown by Horizon	1h 26m Portland	PDX 21:26 → JFK 05:24 +1AS 336	8h 55m	95%	72%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:59 → SEA 14:51DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest	1h 11m Seattle	SEA 16:02 → JFK 00:03 +1DL 1044	9h 04m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	ONT 11:48 → ATL 19:15DL 665	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 22:55 → JFK 01:02 +1DL 624	10h 14m	99%	71%
American Details →	ONT 16:26 → PHX 17:54AA 2859	3h 56m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	10h 21m	92%	70%
Alaska Details →	ONT 19:04 → SEA 21:32AS 592	1h 43m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → JFK 07:38 +1AS 22	9h 34m	91%	67%
Delta Details →	ONT 06:20 → SEA 09:15DL 3816 · flown by SkyWest	2h 54m Seattle	SEA 12:09 → JFK 20:11DL 415	10h 51m	98%	66%
Alaska Details →	ONT 07:33 → PDX 09:47AS 544	1h 00m Portland	PDX 10:47 → JFK 19:23AS 18	8h 50m	91%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ONT 19:31 → PHX 20:57AA 1666	53m Phoenix	PHX 21:50 → JFK 05:47 +1AA 1587	7h 16m	67%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON