Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: WN 3274 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 3274 ONT 05:15 → PHX 06:37 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1666 ONT 19:31 → PHX 20:57 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3274 Southwest	ONT 05:15	PHX 06:37	6%	1%	2.3%	no record
WN 3275 Southwest	ONT 08:19	PHX 09:41	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4171 Envoy	ONT 09:36	PHX 11:00	14%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 1194 American Flight history →	ONT 06:11	PHX 07:30	15%	4%	2.3%	92%
WN 3277 Southwest	ONT 16:14	PHX 17:36	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3276 Southwest	ONT 13:04	PHX 14:26	21%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 2661 American Flight history →	ONT 13:08	PHX 14:38	24%	6%	0.9%	79%
WN 962 Southwest	ONT 20:29	PHX 21:50	24%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2859 American Flight history →	ONT 16:26	PHX 17:54	27%	7%	0.9%	74%
AA 1666 American Flight history →	ONT 19:31	PHX 20:57	28%	8%	0.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON