Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 723 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 723 ORD 08:27 → ABQ 10:32 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest AA 1182 ORD 21:27 → ABQ 23:29 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 723 United Flight history →	ORD 08:27	ABQ 10:32	23%	6%	1.1%	78%
AA 1219 American Flight history →	ORD 11:07	ABQ 13:33	32%	9%	1.2%	76%
UA 2144 United	ORD 20:34	ABQ 22:41	36%	15%	1.2%	no record
AA 1182 American	ORD 21:27	ABQ 23:29	41%	14%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON