Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2034 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–38%.

Safest bet that day UA 2034 ORD 07:30 → ALB 10:43 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OO 6271 ORD 15:37 → ALB 18:42 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2034 United Flight history →	ORD 07:30	ALB 10:43	9%	5%	1.0%	90%
OO 6258 SkyWest	ORD 08:49	ALB 12:05	23%	7%	1.3%	no record
UA 2792 United Flight history →	ORD 12:04	ALB 15:09	26%	12%	1.2%	66%
UA 1382 United	ORD 18:44	ALB 21:45	33%	19%	1.6%	no record
UA 1634 United	ORD 14:49	ALB 18:00	33%	17%	2.3%	no record
OO 4960 SkyWest	ORD 19:52	ALB 22:54	38%	13%	2.3%	no record
OO 6271 SkyWest	ORD 15:37	ALB 18:42	42%	17%	3.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON