Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 22 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 1264 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–46%.

Safest bet that day DL 1264 ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1442 ORD 19:41 → ATL 22:57 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1264 Delta Flight history →	ORD 05:30	ATL 08:29	8%	3%	1.0%	91%
DL 1247 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:35	ATL 09:37	12%	4%	1.0%	88%
UA 2249 United Flight history →	ORD 06:56	ATL 10:09	13%	5%	0.9%	89%
DL 1687 Delta	ORD 08:06	ATL 11:14	15%	5%	1.3%	no record
DL 1178 Delta Flight history →	ORD 09:45	ATL 12:51	16%	4%	1.3%	87%
AA 639 American	ORD 06:47	ATL 10:01	16%	6%	1.1%	no record
AA 1153 American	ORD 08:36	ATL 11:46	21%	8%	1.3%	no record
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:20	ATL 14:25	22%	6%	1.3%	80%
UA 2684 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	ATL 13:44	22%	9%	1.0%	86%
UA 530 United Flight history →	ORD 09:38	ATL 12:40	22%	8%	1.1%	82%
UA 2779 United	ORD 11:59	ATL 15:07	24%	11%	1.1%	no record
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:44	ATL 16:54	31%	15%	2.3%	72%
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:22	ATL 18:36	31%	17%	2.7%	76%
AA 2910 American Flight history →	ORD 11:07	ATL 14:17	31%	10%	1.3%	75%
DL 1652 Delta	ORD 18:32	ATL 21:39	34%	13%	2.2%	no record
AA 2472 American Flight history →	ORD 19:31	ATL 22:45	35%	19%	2.3%	63%
AA 1138 American	ORD 13:03	ATL 16:14	37%	19%	2.9%	no record
UA 1398 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	ATL 21:41	37%	20%	1.6%	58%
UA 356 United Flight history →	ORD 14:19	ATL 17:30	39%	24%	2.2%	75%worse than usual
F9 1596 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 10:50	ATL 14:02	40%	13%	2.1%	74%worse than usual
AA 3033 American	ORD 15:06	ATL 18:20	43%	22%	3.8%	no record
F9 1442 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 19:41	ATL 22:57	46%	21%	3.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON