Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2842 at 05:07 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 26–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2842 ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1409 ORD 13:25 → CLT 16:13 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2842 American Flight history →	ORD 05:07	CLT 08:10	7%	3%	1.4%	90%
AA 1784 American Flight history →	ORD 06:30	CLT 09:37	13%	3%	1.4%	84%
YX 3426 Republic	ORD 06:45	CLT 09:48	13%	4%	1.2%	no record
UA 3450 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:16	CLT 14:39	19%	5%	1.3%	89%
AA 411 American	ORD 08:01	CLT 10:56	23%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 2080 American Flight history →	ORD 09:10	CLT 11:52	24%	5%	1.5%	84%
AA 2976 American Flight history →	ORD 20:54	CLT 23:59	26%	11%	2.0%	62%
YX 3518 Republic	ORD 14:14	CLT 17:35	29%	14%	4.7%	no record
AA 662 American	ORD 12:05	CLT 14:55	29%	9%	1.5%	no record
AA 689 American Flight history →	ORD 18:47	CLT 21:59	34%	15%	2.9%	68%
AA 3188 American	ORD 16:49	CLT 19:44	36%	13%	2.9%	no record
UA 1748 United Flight history →	ORD 18:15	CLT 21:29	36%	18%	1.9%	43%
AA 1409 American Flight history →	ORD 13:25	CLT 16:13	38%	12%	3.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON