Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 3706 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–45%.

Safest bet that day YX 3706 ORD 06:50 → DTW 09:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 768 ORD 19:44 → DTW 22:06 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3706 Republic	ORD 06:50	DTW 09:17	9%	4%	1.4%	no record
DL 2039 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:05	DTW 09:30	10%	4%	1.3%	87%
AA 4103 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 07:15	DTW 09:49	12%	4%	2.3%	92%
YX 3632 Republic	ORD 08:49	DTW 11:16	16%	4%	1.6%	no record
DL 2840 Delta	ORD 08:54	DTW 11:16	19%	5%	1.4%	no record
AA 3977 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:47	DTW 13:15	21%	7%	2.7%	91%worse than usual
OO 3819 SkyWest	ORD 11:13	DTW 13:36	27%	12%	2.2%	no record
UA 5756 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:50	DTW 13:27	27%	12%	2.3%	77%
AA 3980 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:56	DTW 16:24	30%	11%	5.4%	86%worse than usual
DL 1716 Delta Flight history →	ORD 14:07	DTW 16:40	31%	15%	2.8%	78%
DL 1084 Delta Flight history →	ORD 19:17	DTW 21:52	33%	17%	2.8%	69%
MQ 4105 Envoy	ORD 17:46	DTW 20:09	36%	14%	7.9%	no record
OO 5882 SkyWest	ORD 13:04	DTW 15:34	36%	19%	4.2%	no record
UA 2632 United	ORD 15:30	DTW 17:53	38%	19%	2.4%	no record
DL 2358 Delta Flight history →	ORD 17:18	DTW 19:50	39%	17%	3.4%	71%worse than usual
UA 349 United	ORD 21:28	DTW 23:51	40%	16%	1.1%	no record
UA 642 United	ORD 18:06	DTW 20:29	44%	20%	1.6%	no record
OO 4983 SkyWest	ORD 18:59	DTW 21:22	44%	22%	5.7%	no record
UA 768 United	ORD 19:44	DTW 22:06	45%	21%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON