Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 18 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1027 at 05:52 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–53%.

Safest bet that day UA 1027 ORD 05:52 → EWR 08:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3253 ORD 17:36 → EWR 21:00 · 53% chance 15+ min late · usually 47% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1027 United	ORD 05:52	EWR 08:54	9%	4%	1.8%	no record
UA 2759 United Flight history →	ORD 04:58	EWR 08:03	14%	5%	2.4%	47%
AA 3170 American Flight history →	ORD 06:42	EWR 10:00	16%	5%	3.1%	81%
UA 1273 United	ORD 07:49	EWR 11:02	17%	8%	1.6%	no record
UA 2238 United	ORD 09:23	EWR 12:41	24%	14%	1.8%	no record
UA 1856 United Flight history →	ORD 10:51	EWR 14:17	27%	16%	1.9%	80%
AA 1691 American Flight history →	ORD 10:10	EWR 13:42	32%	15%	3.3%	48%
UA 759 United Flight history →	ORD 20:07	EWR 23:39	33%	26%	3.4%	65%
UA 606 United Flight history →	ORD 12:11	EWR 15:39	33%	20%	2.4%	78%worse than usual
UA 1209 United Flight history →	ORD 21:53	EWR 01:01	35%	21%	3.7%	68%
AA 2549 American Flight history →	ORD 20:09	EWR 23:30	40%	27%	6.6%	45%
UA 249 United	ORD 16:19	EWR 19:42	46%	31%	3.1%	no record
UA 1236 United	ORD 15:22	EWR 18:40	49%	31%	3.0%	no record
AA 1936 American Flight history →	ORD 13:10	EWR 16:30	50%	26%	5.5%	65%worse than usual
UA 2790 United	ORD 17:54	EWR 21:01	52%	33%	3.9%	no record
UA 1630 United Flight history →	ORD 17:14	EWR 20:21	52%	33%	3.2%	70%worse than usual
UA 2466 United	ORD 13:58	EWR 17:04	52%	30%	3.8%	no record
AA 3253 American Flight history →	ORD 17:36	EWR 21:00	53%	35%	8.7%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON