tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Key West on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Key West on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Key West is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:58 → EYW 13:05DL 1472 6h 35m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:25 → EYW 17:23DL 2168 6h 38m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → ORD 06:17 → MIA 10:08AA 2452 2h 03m Miami MIA 12:11 → EYW 13:21AA 3255 6h 04m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815 7h 31m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842 1h 42m Charlotte CLT 09:52 → EYW 12:26AA 1816 6h 19m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → ORD 08:54 → MIA 13:08AA 1250 2h 52m Miami MIA 16:00 → EYW 16:56AA 3689 · flown by Envoy 7h 02m 91% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 07:07 → MIA 11:19AA 1875 52m Miami MIA 12:11 → EYW 13:21AA 3255 5h 14m 74% 58%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894 59m Atlanta ATL 17:53 → EYW 19:51DL 2815 5h 07m 68% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON