Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Seattle, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Fairbanks on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fairbanks on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 06:55 → SEA 09:27DL 2041	1h 18m Seattle	SEA 10:45 → FAI 13:42DL 1061	9h 47m	94%	73%
Alaska Details →	ORD 06:24 → SEA 08:24AS 587	3h 36m Seattle	SEA 12:00 → FAI 14:38AS 96	11h 14m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	ORD 17:42 → SEA 20:21AS 337	2h 21m Seattle	SEA 22:42 → FAI 01:27 +1AS 351	10h 45m	92%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 19:14 → SEA 21:33AS 579	1h 09m Seattle	SEA 22:42 → FAI 01:27 +1AS 351	9h 13m	69%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON