Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: G7 4539 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–37%.

Safest bet that day G7 4539 ORD 06:55 → GSO 09:49 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4502 ORD 18:39 → GSO 21:11 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


G7 4539 GoJet	ORD 06:55	GSO 09:49	14%	3%	2.3%	no record
AA 4144 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:23	GSO 11:11	16%	3%	2.1%	95%worse than usual
AA 3648 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:24	GSO 22:19	28%	8%	3.5%	78%
AA 4118 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:51	GSO 18:46	33%	12%	5.4%	92%worse than usual
G7 4565 GoJet	ORD 14:32	GSO 17:27	35%	17%	6.1%	no record
G7 4502 GoJet	ORD 18:39	GSO 21:11	37%	12%	4.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON