tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 219 United Flight history → ORD 09:30 HNL 13:32 25% 9% 0.8% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 5 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 1h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:50 → HNL 13:20DL 837 12h 50m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:29 → LAX 10:00DL 1556 3h 55m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 14h 14m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:36 → SFO 15:01UA 1097 3h 59m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 14h 07m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361 3h 46m Los Angeles LAX 13:19 → HNL 16:23UA 1224 14h 23m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 3h 36m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → HNL 16:18UA 300 13h 48m 99% 78%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 3h 05m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 08m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → ORD 06:00 → LAX 08:20AA 607 1h 21m Los Angeles LAX 09:41 → HNL 12:49AA 31 11h 49m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 1h 58m San Francisco SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380 12h 10m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 13:55 → LAX 16:05UA 374 1h 00m Los Angeles LAX 17:05 → HNL 19:44UA 1170 10h 49m 61% 47%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:00 → SEA 15:44DL 1564 52m Seattle SEA 16:36 → HNL 19:30DL 419 11h 30m 56% 42%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 09:03 → SEA 11:22AS 583 48m Seattle SEA 12:10 → HNL 14:58AS 899 10h 55m 54% 31%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON