Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 3812 at 08:10 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 3812 ORD 08:10 → HPN 11:29 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 4294 ORD 14:37 → HPN 17:34 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3812 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:10	HPN 11:29	15%	3%	2.4%	83%
AA 3752 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 19:39	HPN 22:59	23%	7%	6.7%	78%
AA 3499 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:29	HPN 21:57	24%	9%	7.5%	75%
AA 4200 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 12:41	HPN 15:59	24%	6%	3.7%	78%
AA 4294 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:37	HPN 17:34	32%	10%	8.4%	85%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON