Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 20–30% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day MQ 4132 ORD 08:46 → HSV 10:36 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4500 ORD 19:49 → HSV 21:33 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4132 Envoy	ORD 08:46	HSV 10:36	20%	6%	1.6%	no record
G7 4481 GoJet	ORD 10:58	HSV 12:50	25%	9%	2.9%	no record
MQ 3363 Envoy	ORD 20:49	HSV 22:33	29%	12%	2.5%	no record
UA 4500 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	ORD 19:49	HSV 21:33	30%	12%	6.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON