Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 4809 at 08:52 is the safest bet, 28% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 4809 ORD 08:52 → ICT 11:12 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 6287 ORD 15:21 → ICT 17:40 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 4809 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 08:52	ICT 11:12	28%	10%	1.8%	77%
MQ 3698 Envoy	ORD 21:02	ICT 23:17	31%	9%	2.4%	no record
UA 424 United	ORD 21:44	ICT 23:48	34%	14%	1.0%	no record
OO 4999 SkyWest	ORD 09:40	ICT 11:40	36%	13%	2.1%	no record
G7 4577 GoJet	ORD 12:44	ICT 14:42	36%	14%	3.4%	no record
G7 4553 GoJet	ORD 16:01	ICT 17:42	41%	12%	5.7%	no record
AA 6287 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 15:21	ICT 17:40	45%	22%	5.5%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON