Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AA 6239 at 10:51, with a 31% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 6239 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:51	IDA 13:39	31%	12%	1.5%	37%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Idaho Falls on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Idaho Falls is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666	1h 24m Denver	DEN 08:05 → IDA 09:50UA 5374 · flown by SkyWest	5h 50m	98%	85%
United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	3h 12m Denver	DEN 12:07 → IDA 13:48UA 2383	7h 43m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → IDA 12:28DL 3765 · flown by SkyWest	5h 43m	83%	76%
Alaska Details →	ORD 15:43 → SEA 18:22AS 407	1h 48m Seattle	SEA 20:10 → IDA 23:06AS 3422 · flown by SkyWest	8h 23m	88%	68%
United Details →	ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803	2h 49m Denver	DEN 19:20 → IDA 21:07UA 5989 · flown by SkyWest	7h 34m	86%	61%
American Details →	ORD 14:57 → DFW 17:43AA 2429	1h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:25 → IDA 21:25AA 6467 · flown by SkyWest	7h 28m	77%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	ORD 09:03 → SEA 11:21AS 583	1h 10m Seattle	SEA 12:31 → IDA 15:27AS 3026 · flown by SkyWest	7h 24m	68%	53%
United Details →	ORD 15:44 → DEN 17:18UA 2769	2h 02m Denver	DEN 19:20 → IDA 21:07UA 5989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 23m	72%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON