Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 4543 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–37%.

Safest bet that day YX 4543 ORD 06:42 → IND 08:56 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3053 ORD 17:13 → IND 19:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4543 Republic	ORD 06:42	IND 08:56	8%	3%	1.5%	no record
UA 3550 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 09:00	IND 11:20	11%	3%	2.1%	88%
OO 5582 SkyWest	ORD 06:01	IND 08:10	17%	5%	2.0%	no record
UA 3707 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:11	IND 22:30	17%	9%	2.0%	76%
YX 3693 Republic	ORD 21:47	IND 00:07	18%	6%	2.0%	no record
UA 3702 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:13	IND 15:37	20%	9%	4.5%	81%
UA 473 United	ORD 10:42	IND 12:55	20%	8%	1.3%	no record
AA 4713 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 12:26	IND 14:40	21%	7%	2.5%	87%
AA 4638 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 20:43	IND 22:57	21%	9%	2.0%	85%
UA 3628 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:07	IND 20:26	24%	10%	3.1%	76%
YX 3288 Republic	ORD 17:42	IND 19:58	25%	11%	2.7%	no record
YX 3499 Republic	ORD 15:34	IND 17:48	27%	12%	4.4%	no record
OO 5014 SkyWest	ORD 09:48	IND 11:56	27%	7%	3.2%	no record
UA 1718 United	ORD 14:35	IND 16:47	35%	17%	2.1%	no record
AA 3053 American	ORD 17:13	IND 19:20	37%	15%	3.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON