Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OO 5604 at 07:29 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–38%.

Safest bet that day OO 5604 ORD 07:29 → JAX 11:11 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1284 ORD 15:31 → JAX 18:58 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5604 SkyWest	ORD 07:29	JAX 11:11	17%	7%	1.7%	no record
MQ 4151 Envoy	ORD 08:37	JAX 12:06	21%	4%	1.6%	no record
UA 1113 United	ORD 10:33	JAX 14:08	27%	8%	1.4%	no record
AA 3486 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 13:53	JAX 17:24	35%	11%	3.0%	80%worse than usual
OO 5632 SkyWest	ORD 18:05	JAX 21:35	35%	17%	2.9%	no record
AA 716 American	ORD 19:27	JAX 22:55	38%	15%	2.8%	no record
UA 1284 United	ORD 15:31	JAX 18:58	40%	18%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON