Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 5581 at 06:50 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 5581 ORD 06:50 → MDT 09:41 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest UA 533 ORD 14:10 → MDT 17:10 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5581 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:50	MDT 09:41	14%	4%	1.6%	77%
YX 4802 Republic	ORD 11:39	MDT 14:34	21%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 1672 American	ORD 08:27	MDT 11:32	22%	4%	1.8%	no record
YX 4799 Republic	ORD 16:23	MDT 19:18	23%	8%	3.0%	no record
YX 3544 Republic	ORD 10:46	MDT 13:22	24%	4%	1.8%	no record
AA 1448 American	ORD 19:17	MDT 22:09	33%	13%	2.4%	no record
UA 1719 United	ORD 18:25	MDT 21:16	33%	15%	2.1%	no record
UA 533 United	ORD 14:10	MDT 17:10	35%	15%	2.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON