Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OO 5838 at 06:01 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–43%.

Safest bet that day OO 5838 ORD 06:01 → MKE 06:50 · 20% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5668 ORD 14:29 → MKE 15:19 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5838 SkyWest	ORD 06:01	MKE 06:50	20%	6%	4.1%	no record
UA 3750 United	ORD 08:21	MKE 09:16	23%	7%	2.1%	no record
OO 6241 SkyWest	ORD 07:13	MKE 07:52	25%	8%	4.4%	no record
UA 5821 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 09:18	MKE 10:26	28%	10%	5.3%	73%
AA 6257 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 21:37	MKE 22:27	31%	12%	4.7%	44%
UA 5234 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 10:48	MKE 11:50	32%	12%	6.3%	77%
UA 4711 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 20:15	MKE 21:05	33%	13%	4.6%	70%
OO 4984 SkyWest	ORD 10:26	MKE 11:31	33%	12%	6.3%	no record
AA 6273 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:13	MKE 20:17	35%	16%	4.4%	37%
UA 5555 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 18:28	MKE 19:18	39%	18%	5.5%	52%
OO 4990 SkyWest	ORD 13:25	MKE 14:18	42%	20%	7.6%	no record
AA 4993 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 17:50	MKE 18:40	42%	20%	5.0%	59%
UA 5262 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 16:29	MKE 17:19	43%	16%	7.3%	76%worse than usual
UA 5933 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 13:01	MKE 13:37	46%	21%	7.6%	67%worse than usual
UA 5668 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 14:29	MKE 15:19	46%	22%	10.0%	66%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON