Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 4460 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day YX 4460 ORD 06:59 → MSN 08:02 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5530 ORD 15:56 → MSN 16:55 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4460 Republic	ORD 06:59	MSN 08:02	11%	3%	1.6%	no record
YX 4717 Republic	ORD 09:39	MSN 10:42	21%	6%	3.1%	no record
YX 4776 Republic	ORD 22:59	MSN 00:02	22%	8%	2.3%	no record
YX 4601 Republic	ORD 21:59	MSN 23:02	23%	9%	2.3%	no record
G7 4382 GoJet	ORD 09:06	MSN 10:14	28%	8%	3.4%	no record
YX 4441 Republic	ORD 17:15	MSN 18:18	30%	13%	6.9%	no record
AA 4038 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:06	MSN 15:12	31%	15%	7.1%	82%worse than usual
UA 2349 United	ORD 12:36	MSN 13:33	32%	15%	2.1%	no record
OO 4737 SkyWest	ORD 10:33	MSN 11:32	33%	14%	4.0%	no record
UA 1251 United	ORD 21:24	MSN 22:22	33%	17%	1.6%	no record
UA 630 United Flight history →	ORD 19:45	MSN 20:43	34%	20%	2.6%	62%
UA 1595 United	ORD 13:56	MSN 14:54	34%	20%	2.7%	no record
OO 5679 SkyWest	ORD 18:10	MSN 19:09	36%	20%	5.2%	no record
OO 5530 SkyWest	ORD 15:56	MSN 16:55	39%	25%	6.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON