Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2778 at 07:24 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2778 ORD 07:24 → MSY 09:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5689 ORD 14:09 → MSY 16:36 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2778 United	ORD 07:24	MSY 09:54	11%	4%	1.1%	no record
AA 3256 American	ORD 00:22	MSY 02:57	15%	5%	1.7%	no record
YX 4464 Republic	ORD 08:00	MSY 10:33	17%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 1532 United	ORD 11:01	MSY 13:34	26%	7%	1.3%	no record
YX 4452 Republic	ORD 22:06	MSY 00:23	27%	8%	1.2%	no record
UA 1761 United Flight history →	ORD 20:11	MSY 22:46	30%	15%	1.4%	63%
OO 5689 SkyWest	ORD 14:09	MSY 16:36	41%	20%	5.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON