Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, YX 3526 at 12:14, with a 29% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


YX 3526 Republic	ORD 12:14	MYR 15:16	29%	9%	4.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Myrtle Beach is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MYR 13:37DL 3182	7h 07m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 22:12 → MYR 23:31DL 3074	7h 09m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → MYR 18:03DL 1093	7h 18m	99%	70%
American Details →	ORD 09:10 → CLT 11:52AA 2080	2h 25m Charlotte	CLT 14:17 → MYR 15:18AA 2495	5h 08m	92%	62%
United Details →	ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856	1h 38m Newark	EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic	6h 12m	90%	56%
American Details →	ORD 13:25 → CLT 16:13AA 1409	2h 19m Charlotte	CLT 18:32 → MYR 19:45AA 1417	5h 20m	79%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON