Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1778 at 08:40 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–36%.

Safest bet that day UA 1778 ORD 08:40 → OMA 10:27 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2207 ORD 15:47 → OMA 17:28 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1778 United Flight history →	ORD 08:40	OMA 10:27	20%	8%	1.1%	87%
AA 3739 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 10:22	OMA 12:09	21%	7%	3.0%	89%
AA 4042 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 14:08	OMA 15:56	28%	14%	7.3%	74%
MQ 3558 Envoy	ORD 17:32	OMA 19:09	32%	13%	5.5%	no record
UA 247 United Flight history →	ORD 12:40	OMA 14:17	32%	14%	1.4%	78%worse than usual
OO 5744 SkyWest	ORD 11:45	OMA 13:10	34%	12%	2.6%	no record
UA 2336 United	ORD 21:31	OMA 23:06	36%	16%	1.3%	no record
OO 5638 SkyWest	ORD 18:08	OMA 19:53	36%	16%	4.3%	no record
AA 3334 American Flight history →	ORD 22:51	OMA 00:41	36%	14%	1.6%	32%
UA 2207 United Flight history →	ORD 15:47	OMA 17:28	38%	22%	3.0%	72%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON