Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 2300 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 2300 ORD 07:00 → PDX 09:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 966 ORD 17:06 → PDX 19:57 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2300 United Flight history →	ORD 07:00	PDX 09:34	11%	3%	0.9%	90%
UA 751 United	ORD 08:47	PDX 11:09	20%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 2515 American	ORD 09:42	PDX 12:16	26%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 1677 United Flight history →	ORD 16:15	PDX 18:47	28%	11%	1.5%	57%
AA 2977 American Flight history →	ORD 21:26	PDX 00:15	30%	8%	1.0%	52%
AS 325 Alaska Flight history →	ORD 14:12	PDX 16:47	32%	12%	3.0%	72%
UA 1554 United Flight history →	ORD 13:45	PDX 16:14	32%	12%	2.6%	81%worse than usual
UA 2243 United	ORD 19:53	PDX 22:14	32%	13%	1.6%	no record
AA 966 American	ORD 17:06	PDX 19:57	33%	13%	2.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231	1h 00m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	6h 25m	86%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON