Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 3656 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–42%.

Safest bet that day YX 3656 ORD 05:57 → PIT 08:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1173 ORD 18:47 → PIT 21:32 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3656 Republic	ORD 05:57	PIT 08:36	6%	3%	1.2%	no record
UA 1285 United Flight history →	ORD 07:15	PIT 09:58	11%	5%	1.1%	88%
YX 4748 Republic	ORD 10:23	PIT 12:52	17%	4%	1.8%	no record
UA 3464 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:20	PIT 23:59	19%	6%	1.2%	80%
UA 2752 United	ORD 10:47	PIT 13:26	24%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 4527 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:16	PIT 23:39	25%	5%	1.1%	73%
UA 3432 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:06	PIT 15:30	26%	9%	4.0%	89%worse than usual
AA 982 American	ORD 12:27	PIT 15:04	30%	13%	1.9%	no record
UA 1946 United Flight history →	ORD 18:05	PIT 20:51	32%	19%	1.7%	64%
UA 1349 United Flight history →	ORD 14:25	PIT 17:10	33%	18%	2.6%	72%
AA 1819 American	ORD 17:07	PIT 19:58	37%	19%	2.8%	no record
OO 5657 SkyWest	ORD 16:10	PIT 18:43	38%	17%	3.0%	no record
AA 1173 American Flight history →	ORD 18:47	PIT 21:32	42%	20%	2.9%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON