Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, UA 2492 at 11:02, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2492 United	ORD 11:02	PNS 13:30	28%	9%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → PNS 12:52DL 1640	7h 22m	99%	87%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:05 → PNS 11:00AA 3982 · flown by Envoy	6h 00m	96%	82%
American Details →	ORD 06:17 → MIA 10:08AA 2452	3h 38m Miami	MIA 13:46 → PNS 14:42AA 3749 · flown by Envoy	8h 25m	100%	81%
United Details →	ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217	2h 25m Denver	DEN 11:20 → PNS 15:15UA 8222	8h 10m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → PNS 15:13DL 1013	5h 28m	98%	79%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	1h 07m Charlotte	CLT 09:17 → PNS 10:06AA 2476	4h 59m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:35 → ATL 09:37DL 1247	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198	4h 16m	89%	76%
Delta Details →	ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 21:10 → PNS 21:32DL 3086	6h 10m	96%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORD 17:36 → MIA 22:00AA 2323	1h 08m Miami	MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59AA 4109 · flown by Envoy	6h 23m	64%	50%
American Details →	ORD 18:47 → CLT 21:59AA 689	1h 04m Charlotte	CLT 23:03 → PNS 23:53AA 3038	5h 06m	68%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON