Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: UA 1807 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 1807 ORD 07:00 → PVD 10:18 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5691 ORD 18:42 → PVD 22:18 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1807 United	ORD 07:00	PVD 10:18	9%	4%	0.9%	no record
MQ 4212 Envoy	ORD 08:37	PVD 12:08	14%	4%	1.7%	no record
AA 1293 American Flight history →	ORD 20:30	PVD 23:53	22%	11%	3.2%	63%
OO 5676 SkyWest	ORD 11:21	PVD 15:01	25%	8%	2.0%	no record
AA 3771 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 15:25	PVD 18:32	25%	11%	4.6%	84%
OO 5691 SkyWest	ORD 18:42	PVD 22:18	30%	14%	3.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON