Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: OO 5232 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–34%.

Safest bet that day OO 5232 ORD 06:59 → PWM 10:22 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1401 ORD 18:38 → PWM 22:05 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5232 SkyWest	ORD 06:59	PWM 10:22	15%	5%	1.1%	no record
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 08:38	PWM 12:06	16%	3%	1.4%	92%
UA 2804 United Flight history →	ORD 11:00	PWM 14:31	23%	7%	1.3%	86%
AA 4504 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 19:55	PWM 23:22	27%	9%	2.4%	69%
YX 3662 Republic	ORD 15:25	PWM 19:06	27%	12%	3.9%	no record
YX 4478 Republic	ORD 13:58	PWM 17:12	30%	11%	3.8%	no record
UA 1401 United Flight history →	ORD 18:38	PWM 22:05	34%	17%	1.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON