Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 4191 at 08:03 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4191 ORD 08:03 → ROC 10:46 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1568 ORD 18:29 → ROC 21:22 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4191 Envoy	ORD 08:03	ROC 10:46	14%	4%	1.5%	no record
UA 5919 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 06:56	ROC 09:41	15%	6%	1.7%	83%
MQ 4192 Envoy	ORD 17:23	ROC 20:21	21%	9%	3.2%	no record
MQ 3443 Envoy	ORD 12:11	ROC 14:51	23%	6%	2.1%	no record
AA 3823 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:17	ROC 23:52	27%	6%	1.9%	77%
UA 1239 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ROC 16:45	32%	14%	2.1%	71%
G7 4599 GoJet	ORD 11:28	ROC 14:03	32%	6%	2.8%	no record
UA 1568 United Flight history →	ORD 18:29	ROC 21:22	33%	15%	1.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON