tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: American via Phoenix, leaving 04:58, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching Santa Barbara on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1008 United Flight history → ORD 10:29 SBA 13:07 27% 10% 1.2% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 2h 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:16 → SBA 12:02AA 1822 9h 02m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 2h 57m Denver DEN 11:52 → SBA 13:37UA 671 8h 32m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:00 → LAX 09:33UA 2361 3h 15m Los Angeles LAX 12:48 → SBA 13:43UA 5893 · flown by SkyWest 8h 43m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:10 → SFO 08:47UA 246 1h 42m San Francisco SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578 7h 42m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → ORD 15:26 → SFO 18:18UA 1334 3h 05m San Francisco SFO 21:23 → SBA 22:45UA 2866 9h 19m 94% 72%
AmericanDetails → ORD 04:58 → PHX 06:35AA 769 1h 14m Phoenix PHX 07:49 → SBA 09:34AA 3984 · flown by Envoy 6h 36m 88% 71%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:30 → SFO 10:19UA 1116 3h 31m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → SBA 15:17UA 5464 · flown by SkyWest 9h 47m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:42 → PHX 19:30AA 3137 1h 43m Phoenix PHX 21:13 → SBA 23:00AA 1855 7h 18m 82% 61%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 15:44 → DEN 17:18UA 2769 2h 05m Denver DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479 7h 15m 72% 47%
AlaskaDetails → ORD 14:12 → PDX 16:47AS 325 53m Portland PDX 17:40 → SBA 19:48AS 2029 · flown by Horizon 7h 36m 59% 47%
AmericanDetails → ORD 13:33 → PHX 15:38AA 1640 58m Phoenix PHX 16:36 → SBA 18:21AA 3900 · flown by Envoy 6h 48m 54% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON