Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: YX 3672 at 06:51 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day YX 3672 ORD 06:51 → SDF 09:18 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest G7 4425 ORD 15:26 → SDF 17:55 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3672 Republic	ORD 06:51	SDF 09:18	8%	3%	1.6%	no record
YX 4492 Republic	ORD 06:57	SDF 09:24	8%	3%	1.6%	no record
MQ 3580 Envoy	ORD 09:44	SDF 12:03	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
UA 3659 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 21:25	SDF 23:59	22%	9%	2.2%	73%
YX 3605 Republic	ORD 16:37	SDF 19:05	26%	11%	3.0%	no record
YX 785 Republic	ORD 16:33	SDF 19:03	27%	12%	3.2%	no record
AA 4668 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 13:38	SDF 16:01	28%	11%	3.7%	86%worse than usual
UA 3598 United flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:36	SDF 21:06	28%	13%	3.1%	77%
AA 4603 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 18:55	SDF 21:23	28%	14%	3.1%	75%
OO 5692 SkyWest	ORD 10:39	SDF 13:02	29%	13%	2.1%	no record
G7 4425 GoJet	ORD 15:26	SDF 17:55	36%	16%	3.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON