Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2231 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 2231 ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest AA 1873 ORD 14:07 → SLC 16:35 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2231 Delta Flight history →	ORD 07:45	SLC 10:15	14%	3%	1.0%	81%
AA 1991 American	ORD 08:23	SLC 10:50	23%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 1972 United Flight history →	ORD 09:23	SLC 11:52	23%	6%	1.2%	84%
AA 3258 American Flight history →	ORD 11:50	SLC 14:42	30%	7%	1.4%	70%
UA 1955 United Flight history →	ORD 12:45	SLC 15:22	31%	10%	1.2%	77%
UA 1710 United Flight history →	ORD 20:34	SLC 23:06	32%	13%	1.1%	58%
AA 2545 American Flight history →	ORD 21:37	SLC 00:10	35%	11%	0.9%	50%
DL 1446 Delta	ORD 14:08	SLC 16:33	35%	13%	2.1%	no record
DL 1448 Delta	ORD 19:49	SLC 22:13	36%	12%	1.3%	no record
AA 1873 American	ORD 14:07	SLC 16:35	37%	14%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON