Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: YX 3680 at 06:58 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 3680 Republic	ORD 06:58	SRQ 10:53	13%	4%	1.5%	no record
UA 2287 United Flight history →	ORD 12:08	SRQ 16:02	30%	13%	2.5%	82%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 10:46 → SRQ 12:25DL 3104	5h 55m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 32m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → SRQ 21:31DL 1057	6h 47m	96%	78%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	3h 12m Charlotte	CLT 11:22 → SRQ 13:25AA 3328	7h 18m	98%	76%
American Details →	ORD 06:36 → PHL 09:51AA 471	3h 02m Philadelphia	PHL 12:53 → SRQ 15:35AA 2758	7h 59m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	ORD 06:00 → LGA 09:09DL 2767	1h 19m New York	LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412	6h 33m	93%	69%
American Details →	ORD 13:25 → CLT 16:13AA 1409	3h 05m Charlotte	CLT 19:18 → SRQ 21:14AA 5348 · flown by PSA	6h 49m	90%	68%
American Details →	ORD 06:04 → DFW 08:36AA 2896	3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:33 → SRQ 16:02AA 2679	8h 58m	97%	61%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ORD 17:36 → MIA 22:00AA 2323	54m Miami	MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy	5h 23m	55%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON