tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:45, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Hailey on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hailey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hailey is 1 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → ORD 07:45 → SLC 10:15DL 2231 3h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 13:25 → SUN 14:31DL 3689 · flown by SkyWest 7h 46m 97% 87%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → LAX 08:27UA 2373 3h 08m Los Angeles LAX 11:35 → SUN 15:00UA 5379 · flown by SkyWest 10h 00m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORD 07:05 → DEN 08:55UA 1217 3h 22m Denver DEN 12:17 → SUN 14:17UA 5554 · flown by SkyWest 8h 12m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → ORD 14:33 → DEN 16:31UA 2803 2h 54m Denver DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest 7h 53m 86% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → ORD 15:44 → DEN 17:18UA 2769 2h 07m Denver DEN 19:25 → SUN 21:26UA 5734 · flown by SkyWest 6h 42m 72% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON