tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: American via DFW, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 64% chance of reaching Tucson on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2537 American Flight history → ORD 14:14 TUS 16:12 42% 15% 4.3% 79%worse than usual
OO 5928 SkyWest ORD 13:03 TUS 14:54 51% 15% 10.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tucson is 2 h behind Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → ORD 05:00 → DEN 06:41UA 2666 1h 03m Denver DEN 07:44 → TUS 09:02UA 1511 6h 02m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:59 → TUS 12:35DL 937 9h 05m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → ORD 06:00 → DEN 07:42UA 2806 3h 48m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 8h 32m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → ORD 15:16 → LAX 17:34DL 967 1h 47m Los Angeles LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest 7h 43m 92% 72%
DeltaDetails → ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 20:36 → TUS 21:35DL 1251 9h 51m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760 3h 15m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:45 → TUS 11:10AA 2586 8h 10m 99% 71%
AmericanDetails → ORD 04:58 → PHX 06:35AA 769 3h 35m Phoenix PHX 10:10 → TUS 11:07AA 3319 8h 09m 95% 70%
AmericanDetails → ORD 15:21 → LAX 17:43AA 529 2h 55m Los Angeles LAX 20:38 → TUS 22:19AA 6315 · flown by SkyWest 8h 58m 88% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → ORD 17:42 → PHX 19:30AA 3137 1h 16m Phoenix PHX 20:46 → TUS 21:45AA 6309 · flown by SkyWest 6h 03m 72% 50%
UnitedDetails → ORD 12:41 → SFO 15:15UA 1097 1h 17m San Francisco SFO 16:32 → TUS 18:47UA 5962 · flown by SkyWest 8h 06m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON