Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: MQ 3493 at 09:11 is the safest bet, 27% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–50%.

Safest bet that day MQ 3493 ORD 09:11 → TVC 11:21 · 27% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 5704 ORD 13:57 → TVC 16:08 · 55% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3493 Envoy	ORD 09:11	TVC 11:21	27%	5%	3.0%	no record
OO 5726 SkyWest	ORD 07:34	TVC 09:45	28%	7%	4.5%	no record
MQ 4274 Envoy	ORD 21:06	TVC 23:16	31%	9%	2.3%	no record
AA 4307 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:58	TVC 14:08	32%	6%	3.8%	89%worse than usual
YX 3500 Republic	ORD 16:04	TVC 18:23	34%	13%	6.0%	no record
OO 6339 SkyWest	ORD 17:13	TVC 19:38	41%	19%	5.7%	no record
UA 2071 United Flight history →	ORD 21:26	TVC 23:35	41%	16%	1.5%	63%
OO 5563 SkyWest	ORD 10:50	TVC 13:01	44%	13%	5.5%	no record
OO 5714 SkyWest	ORD 18:31	TVC 20:43	50%	19%	6.2%	no record
OO 5704 SkyWest	ORD 13:57	TVC 16:08	55%	20%	8.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON