Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29DL 1264	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 10:42 → VPS 11:00DL 2048	5h 30m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	ORD 09:45 → ATL 12:51DL 1178	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 14:32 → VPS 14:53DL 2832	5h 08m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882	7h 05m	96%	79%
American Details →	ORD 05:07 → CLT 08:10AA 2842	3h 28m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → VPS 12:29AA 5165 · flown by PSA	7h 22m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	ORD 11:20 → ATL 14:25DL 1147	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → VPS 18:16DL 2803	6h 56m	98%	77%
American Details →	ORD 05:00 → DFW 07:30AA 760	2h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:44 → VPS 11:49AA 3089	6h 49m	97%	76%
American Details →	ORD 09:10 → CLT 11:52AA 2080	3h 19m Charlotte	CLT 15:11 → VPS 16:00AA 5201 · flown by PSA	6h 50m	98%	71%
American Details →	ORD 14:57 → DFW 17:43AA 2429	1h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:02 → VPS 21:01AA 1201	6h 04m	76%	47%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	ORD 13:44 → ATL 16:54DL 2894	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 17:58 → VPS 18:16DL 2803	4h 32m	74%	57%
American Details →	ORD 17:36 → MIA 22:00AA 2323	1h 10m Miami	MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy	6h 23m	65%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON