Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 3595 at 08:17 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3595 ORD 08:17 → XNA 10:13 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest G7 4399 ORD 15:49 → XNA 17:38 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3595 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 08:17	XNA 10:13	20%	5%	1.9%	90%worse than usual
AA 3941 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:47	XNA 23:30	27%	6%	1.4%	87%worse than usual
AA 4028 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 11:40	XNA 13:25	28%	7%	2.0%	78%
G7 4498 GoJet	ORD 09:00	XNA 10:56	29%	5%	2.9%	no record
AA 3578 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 18:58	XNA 20:47	30%	11%	3.2%	96%worse than usual
G7 4428 GoJet	ORD 20:57	XNA 22:54	30%	8%	2.8%	no record
G7 4601 GoJet	ORD 12:45	XNA 14:11	37%	8%	3.4%	no record
MQ 3660 Envoy	ORD 15:16	XNA 16:54	40%	11%	4.5%	no record
G7 4399 GoJet	ORD 15:49	XNA 17:38	41%	11%	7.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON