Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 2274 at 07:03 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–31%.

Safest bet that day AA 2274 ORF 07:03 → DFW 09:28 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2288 ORF 19:12 → DFW 21:53 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2274 American Flight history →	ORF 07:03	DFW 09:28	14%	7%	3.7%	84%
MQ 3869 Envoy	ORF 11:50	DFW 14:33	18%	6%	1.8%	no record
AA 2288 American Flight history →	ORF 19:12	DFW 21:53	31%	13%	2.9%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	ORF 13:27 → ATL 15:19DL 2755	51m Atlanta	ATL 16:10 → DFW 17:27DL 374	5h 00m	75%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON