Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AA 5088 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 5088 ORF 06:23 → PHL 07:40 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest OH 5216 ORF 17:31 → PHL 18:54 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5088 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 06:23	PHL 07:40	17%	10%	5.7%	85%
AA 6122 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	ORF 10:46	PHL 12:03	21%	9%	3.6%	78%
AA 5271 American flown by PSA Flight history →	ORF 07:53	PHL 09:16	21%	12%	4.9%	76%
PT 5949 Piedmont	ORF 15:45	PHL 17:06	29%	11%	3.3%	no record
OH 5216 PSA	ORF 17:31	PHL 18:54	36%	14%	3.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON