Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 36 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: DL 2702 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–59%.

Safest bet that day DL 2702 MCO 06:00 → JFK 08:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 1098 MCO 17:15 → LGA 20:03 · 59% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2702 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:00	JFK 08:43	5%	3%	1.5%	93%
UA 1309 United Flight history →	MCO 06:00	EWR 08:35	7%	3%	1.3%	96%
UA 1105 United Flight history →	MCO 07:25	EWR 10:04	7%	4%	1.3%	95%
DL 2693 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:40	JFK 10:17	8%	4%	1.7%	88%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	MCO 08:35	EWR 11:14	9%	4%	1.3%	91%
DL 1573 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LGA 09:41	11%	3%	1.9%	91%
B6 884 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:02	JFK 08:40	13%	4%	1.7%	53%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	JFK 13:46	18%	9%	2.2%	82%
UA 1081 United	MCO 10:27	EWR 13:06	19%	8%	1.4%	no record
B6 2028 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:50	EWR 12:30	21%	7%	1.6%	81%
B6 1184 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 00:09	JFK 02:37	21%	8%	1.4%	91%worse than usual
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:48	LGA 13:24	25%	9%	2.9%	84%
UA 254 United	MCO 11:39	EWR 14:14	26%	12%	1.7%	no record
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:22	JFK 18:45	28%	22%	3.3%	74%
B6 384 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:40	JFK 13:13	29%	12%	2.2%	68%
UA 1626 United	MCO 12:58	EWR 15:42	29%	17%	1.8%	no record
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	MCO 19:56	JFK 22:28	34%	26%	2.9%	56%
F9 2512 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 22:14	EWR 01:07	35%	17%	3.1%	90%worse than usual
UA 1643 United Flight history →	MCO 13:47	EWR 16:25	36%	19%	2.4%	74%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:47	LGA 18:50	38%	25%	4.9%	72%
UA 2629 United Flight history →	MCO 16:04	EWR 18:57	38%	23%	2.5%	63%
AA 1563 American	MCO 11:40	LGA 14:19	38%	18%	3.2%	no record
UA 1407 United	MCO 19:18	EWR 22:13	38%	25%	2.8%	no record
DL 1511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:54	LGA 16:26	40%	21%	3.6%	76%worse than usual
UA 776 United Flight history →	MCO 17:27	EWR 20:05	44%	28%	3.0%	71%worse than usual
UA 2662 United	MCO 18:07	EWR 20:47	45%	29%	3.1%	no record
DL 1579 Delta	MCO 20:00	LGA 22:32	45%	26%	6.0%	no record
B6 2128 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 21:02	EWR 23:41	46%	28%	3.5%	45%
B6 1084 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:28	JFK 17:05	47%	28%	3.9%	79%worse than usual
B6 598 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:23	LGA 14:59	49%	23%	3.0%	78%worse than usual
B6 2984 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:48	JFK 19:29	53%	33%	3.8%	56%
AA 2224 American	MCO 18:18	LGA 21:13	53%	31%	5.9%	no record
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:17	EWR 21:56	53%	33%	4.3%	53%
B6 798 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:12	LGA 21:59	57%	35%	6.0%	45%
B6 698 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:36	LGA 17:14	58%	34%	4.9%	73%worse than usual
B6 1098 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:15	LGA 20:03	59%	35%	5.5%	60%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON