tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: one nonstop, AS 425 at 07:29, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 425 Alaska PDX 07:29 ABQ 11:13 11% 2% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 16m Salt Lake City SLC 15:49 → ABQ 17:39DL 3726 · flown by SkyWest 6h 54m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 48m Denver DEN 12:19 → ABQ 13:48UA 476 7h 48m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 1h 42m Los Angeles LAX 15:00 → ABQ 18:07DL 4091 · flown by SkyWest 6h 14m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:01 → ORD 05:53UA 2094 2h 34m Chicago ORD 08:27 → ABQ 10:32UA 723 9h 31m 100% 76%
AmericanDetails → PDX 07:58 → DFW 13:44AA 371 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:07 → ABQ 17:00AA 4269 · flown by Envoy 8h 02m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → PDX 08:50 → DEN 12:24UA 2375 1h 10m Denver DEN 13:34 → ABQ 15:01UA 1594 5h 11m 93% 72%
UnitedDetails → PDX 06:39 → IAH 12:45UA 462 1h 11m Houston IAH 13:56 → ABQ 15:05UA 6345 · flown by Mesa 7h 26m 94% 70%
DeltaDetails → PDX 11:37 → ATL 19:21DL 539 1h 26m Atlanta ATL 20:47 → ABQ 22:02DL 1531 9h 25m 94% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:00DL 2551 47m Los Angeles LAX 20:47 → ABQ 23:48DL 4098 · flown by SkyWest 5h 11m 70% 58%
AmericanDetails → PDX 15:05 → PHX 17:49AA 2986 1h 03m Phoenix PHX 18:52 → ABQ 21:15AA 3021 5h 10m 70% 46%
AmericanDetails → PDX 14:16 → DFW 20:06AA 2496 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:55 → ABQ 22:02AA 1321 6h 46m 62% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON