tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 13:42, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Austin on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 540 Alaska Flight history → PDX 10:30 AUS 16:38 19% 4% 0.9% 86%
AS 1370 Alaska Flight history → PDX 17:39 AUS 23:49 21% 6% 0.9% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 37m San Francisco SFO 08:38 → AUS 14:35UA 1107 7h 20m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:01 → ORD 05:53UA 2094 1h 07m Chicago ORD 07:00 → AUS 09:56UA 1336 7h 55m 91% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 1h 34m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 6h 20m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 11:17 → AUS 15:14DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 7h 29m 100% 79%
AmericanDetails → PDX 07:58 → DFW 13:44AA 371 3h 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:41 → AUS 18:50AA 3722 · flown by Envoy 8h 52m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:59 → SFO 15:13UA 751 3h 22m San Francisco SFO 18:35 → AUS 00:16 +1UA 2332 9h 17m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → PDX 00:33 → MSP 05:49DL 2359 1h 11m Minneapolis MSP 07:00 → AUS 09:55DL 3950 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 00:08 → IAH 06:15UA 780 1h 11m Houston IAH 07:26 → AUS 08:30UA 2376 6h 22m 90% 78%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → PDX 16:15 → DEN 19:51UA 1787 1h 00m Denver DEN 20:51 → AUS 00:16 +1UA 1943 6h 01m 74% 52%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 06:19 → SEA 07:17AS 499 54m Seattle SEA 08:11 → AUS 14:09AS 352 5h 50m 75% 52%
AmericanDetails → PDX 11:55 → DFW 17:45AA 2655 1h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:45 → AUS 19:59AA 616 6h 04m 73% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON