Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Mon, Oct 12: AS 447 at 00:13 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day AS 447 PDX 00:13 → BOI 02:34 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 1361 PDX 17:52 → BOI 20:11 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 12

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 447 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 00:13	BOI 02:34	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
OO 3407 SkyWest	PDX 07:02	BOI 09:30	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AS 329 Alaska	PDX 10:46	BOI 13:06	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 342 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:58	BOI 17:16	16%	3%	0.6%	87%
AS 1361 Alaska	PDX 17:52	BOI 20:11	20%	4%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON