tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: Alaska via Kailua/Kona, leaving 07:31, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 880 Alaska PDX 08:07 HNL 10:39 23% 4% 1.1% no record
AS 813 Alaska Flight history → PDX 10:30 HNL 13:28 29% 6% 1.0% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 2h 19m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 9h 28m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:59 → SFO 15:13UA 751 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 11h 44m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 3h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 34m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:25 → LAX 15:47DL 2766 2h 50m Los Angeles LAX 18:37 → HNL 21:22DL 443 10h 57m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 29m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 13m 99% 77%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → ANC 13:22AS 775 2h 51m Anchorage ANC 16:13 → HNL 20:13AS 50 12h 43m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:31 → KOA 10:16AS 252 1h 30m Kailua/Kona KOA 11:46 → HNL 12:47AS 1077 8h 16m 96% 73%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:56UA 2818 1h 49m San Francisco SFO 10:45 → HNL 13:20UA 2380 9h 20m 96% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 15:20 → LAS 17:26AS 778 54m Las Vegas LAS 18:20 → HNL 21:39AS 805 9h 19m 72% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON