tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 12 · typical odds for a Monday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Mon, Oct 12: United via SFO, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 252 Alaska Flight history → PDX 07:31 KOA 10:17 15% 3% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Portland). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 09m San Francisco SFO 08:10 → KOA 10:40UA 1721 8h 25m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:59 → SFO 15:10UA 751 3h 50m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → KOA 21:43UA 1723 11h 44m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 3h 44m Denver DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758 13h 37m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 3h 26m Los Angeles LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311 11h 24m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Seattle SEA 14:30 → KOA 17:35DL 340 11h 03m 99% 78%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 10:30 → HNL 13:28AS 813 2h 58m Honolulu HNL 16:26 → KOA 17:29AS 9950 9h 59m 98% 77%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 07:07 → SAN 09:44AS 577 1h 53m San Diego SAN 11:37 → KOA 14:26AS 222 10h 19m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → PDX 07:00 → LAX 09:42AA 6290 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Los Angeles LAX 12:39 → KOA 15:32AA 59 11h 32m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:06 → SEA 09:03AS 376 55m Seattle SEA 09:58 → KOA 12:51AS 709 7h 45m 70% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 12 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON